Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x2460…e144 sports 373 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,315 (-8%) realized −$3,315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%191W / 182L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$453est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$162
14 days+$158
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,949
crypto 5% −$402
other 3% −$81
politics 0% −$38
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +17.0% +5.8% 66% 62% -5.0%
≤30d 125 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 55% -2.8%
≤90d 200 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 53% -15.1%
all 373 -9.0% -17.6% 51% 46% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 46% -16.8%
10% -25.5% 40% -24.7%
15% -32.7% 34% -32.0%
20% -39.3% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$75 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses191 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$453
Open positions0
Markets (closed)373 / 373
History coverage212d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 373 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $38 +$42 +110%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$40 +156%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$22 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $47 +$10 +22%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 +$16 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$17 +413%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 +$14 +54%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $66 +$42 +63%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $51 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $61 +$52 +85%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $115 +$45 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $896 +$14 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 −$53 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $277 −$38 -14%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $404 +$142 +35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $233 −$230 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $129 −$96 -74%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$51 +51%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $151 +$71 +47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$18 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$6 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $303 +$132 +43%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $756 +$163 +22%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $100 −$75 -76%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $75 +$27 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$9 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$21 +77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$11 -44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$16 +41%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$16 +70%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$22 +55%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $106 +$63 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$8 +8%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $54 +$22 +41%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $21 −$11 -54%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $767 +$164 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $80 1m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $25 18m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $13 22m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $65 59m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 38¢ $25 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $77 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $55 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $57 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $47 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $37 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $21 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $21 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $39 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $25 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $36 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $20 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 85¢ $72 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 63¢ $57 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 53¢ $46 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 37¢ $10 46h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $113 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $160 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $115 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $911 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $896 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $53 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $239 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 880 history records