Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x245a…e09e politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$25
other 2% −$3
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
all 85 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage670d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $58 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Scott Bessent confirmed as Treasury Secretary? Dec 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary? Dec 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119t Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 6-11 months in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 22d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 24d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $57 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $57 38d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 43d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 44d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $59 68d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $59 68d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $59 73d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $59 73d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 86d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 86d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 98d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 99d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $59 101d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $59 101d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 104d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $59 111d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $59 112d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records