Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2459…b113 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$6
sports 25% −$2
other 15% −$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -9.9% -18.5% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 61 -9.1% -17.7% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -25.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage242d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1 $0 -19%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $3 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $3 $0 -17%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $1 $0 -12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $2 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 27d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 44d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 47d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 112d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 112d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 113d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $75 113d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $75 119d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 119d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 124d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 124d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 126d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 126d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $81 127d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $81 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $78 143d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 145d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 148d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $3 148d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $3 150d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records