Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2458…bd24 other 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+9%) realized +$613 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%95W / 124L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$533
14 days+$732
30 days+$716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$265
other 48% +$254
crypto 3% $0
world 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +42.9% +29.3% 52% 52% +25.6%
≤30d 127 +13.2% +2.5% 49% 49% +5.0%
≤90d 219 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 43% -1.9%
all 219 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 43% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -1.9%
10% -18.1% 43% -11.3%
15% -26.0% 41% -19.9%
20% -33.3% 40% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$27 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$613
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses95 / 124
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions5
Markets (closed)219 / 224
History coverage71d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$92 +180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$266 +864%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$170 +414%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $41 +$39 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $41 +$48 +119%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $71 +$50 +70%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $30 +$26 +86%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $81 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $51 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $51 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $297 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $31 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $51 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $41 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 53¢ $41 3d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $41 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 50¢ $41 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 50¢ $41 4d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.57 · official $226.58 (match) · 442 history records