Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2458…df0e sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,887 (-4%) realized −$5,933 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,711per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$1,053est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$956
7 days−$4,889
14 days−$7,771
30 days−$7,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$61
other 35% −$5,006
crypto 5% −$2,655
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -39.9% -45.6% 44% 15% -11.5%
≤30d 47 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 19% -12.6%
≤90d 47 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 19% -12.6%
all 47 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 19% -12.6%
10% -45.9% 6% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -51.1% 4% -28.6%
20% -55.9% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$4,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$590 vs −$775 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$5,933
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,053
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2,711
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $42 $82 +$40 (+96%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $470 +$29 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $1,499 −$568 -38%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,198 +$18 +2%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $565 −$280 -50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,262 +$137 +11%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,335 +$167 +12%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,852 +$145 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $154 −$153 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $7,782 +$1,307 +17%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,956 +$620 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $314 −$312 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $630 −$336 -53%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,221 +$324 +8%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $2,779 +$118 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,005 +$495 +12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,693 −$3,695 -79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $803 −$16 -2%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,921 +$907 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,620 −$2,678 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,708 +$296 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,903 +$92 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,260 −$2,385 -38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,551 +$149 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16,413 +$1,608 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,835 −$264 -14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,509 +$439 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6,470 −$251 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,320 +$120 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11,123 +$1,672 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,165 −$2,347 -74%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,545 +$3,708 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,701 −$955 -26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,529 −$2,332 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $373 +$27 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,091 −$2,655 -44%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $9 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 36m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 45m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $499 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $999 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $1 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $0 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $2 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $0 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $2 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $0 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $2 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $4 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $4 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $8 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $5 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $11 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $0 2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.74 · official $105.24 · 795 history records