Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2455…7559
sports · 76 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$154 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$157 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses32 / 33
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions11
Markets (closed)65 / 76
History coverage13d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$157
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 79¢ 76¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Vitality 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$27 +53%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$14 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$9 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 +$8 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$16 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$19 +75%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$3 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$5 -16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$21 +139%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$10 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$23 +149%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $27 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $51 +$33 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $71 +$25 +35%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $5 −$5 -90%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $41 −$38 -92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$12 +80%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$166
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 50m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $10 51m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $50 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $77 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $51 14h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Spirit 20¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $43 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $15 18h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 45¢ $21 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $21 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $44 20h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $20 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 46% +2.6%
≤30d 65 -1.0% -10.5% 49% 45% +2.5%
≤90d 65 -1.0% -10.5% 49% 45% +2.5%
all 65 -1.0% -10.5% 49% 45% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% +2.5%
10% -19.0% 40% -7.3%
15% -26.9% 34% -16.3%
20% -34.0% 23% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.44 · official $157.44 (match) · 198 history records