Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2453…6b0c weather 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+3%) realized +$165 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%235W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$20
14 days+$12
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$113
weather 22% −$18
tech 17% +$63
other 4% +$31
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +1.4% -8.3% 95% 18% -7.4%
≤30d 230 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 17% -6.0%
≤90d 254 -0.0% -9.6% 93% 17% -7.0%
all 254 -0.0% -9.6% 93% 17% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 17% -7.0%
10% -18.2% 2% -15.9%
15% -26.1% 1% -24.1%
20% -33.4% 1% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,119
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses235 / 19
Open positions51
Markets (closed)254 / 305
History coverage76d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $450 $467 +$17 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 93¢ 98¢ $221 $232 +$11 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 91¢ $64 $72 +$8 (+12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $63 $68 +$5 (+8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 91¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 89¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? No 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? No 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,119.45 · official $1,119.45 (match) · 585 history records