Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x2453…9fb2 other 56 markets active 3d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$584 (-0%) realized −$596 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,554per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$35
14 days+$733
30 days+$733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,429
tech 15% +$731
economics 11% +$92
crypto 3% +$46
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$11
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 13 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 53 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 4% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$544 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$959
Realized−$596
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage266d
Avg bet$6,554
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $400 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $912 +$35 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $605 +$17 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $20,008 +$197 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $10,005 +$131 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $4,003 +$62 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $10,309 +$227 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $5,002 +$53 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $100 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $200 +$1 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $343 +$6 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17,990 +$182 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 13 $139 +$2 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 13 $200 +$3 +1%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 24 $1,616 +$30 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Jan 23 $392 +$3 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 23 $880 +$12 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $10,000 +$10 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 23 $10,000 +$10 +0%
Seeker FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 22 $976 +$8 +1%
DOW hits 50k by January 23, 2026? Jan 22 $140 −$70 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 15 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $1,298 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 08 $5,000 +$15 +0%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 03 $445 +$1 +0%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $3,390 −$2,023 -60%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $5,000 +$15 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $5,000 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $10,275 +$168 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 18 $5,000 +$20 +0%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 12 $2,277 −$72 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $9,057 +$42 +0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $1,013 +$3 +0%
Over 10,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 04 $275 +$3 +1%
Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 04 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Dec 02 $427 −$12 -3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 02 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $746 +$9 +1%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $626 +$1 +0%
Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $9,442 +$9 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? Nov 22 $457 +$1 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 16 $99,407 +$100 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $99,229 +$99 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 02 $200 +$5 +2%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 02 $200 +$28 +14%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 02 $850 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $147 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $401 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $621 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $499 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $196 21d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $59 21d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $32 21d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $32 21d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $63 21d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $104 21d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $9 22d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $96 22d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $51 22d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $243 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,002 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $20,008 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $10,009 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 99¢ $10,005 32d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 47d
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $200 56d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $17,990 86d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $343 104d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $139 152d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 152d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $282 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $959.13 · official $959.13 (match) · 207 history records