Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x244f…2c94 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$42 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate60%59W / 39L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 28% −$12
sports 11% −$27
finance 6% +$2
economics 5% +$1
culture 3% −$1
politics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$20
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 59 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 0% -9.4%
all 98 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses59 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)98 / 106
History coverage613d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 90¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 86¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $175 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $996 +$3 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $821 +$1 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $374 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $250 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $481 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $193 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $325 +$1 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $125 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $25 −$19 -76%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 15 $75 $0 +0%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? May 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 15 $119 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 12 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $225 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $158 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $50 −$2 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $25 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $175 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $50 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $275 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $75 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $200 +$1 +0%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $25 $0 +1%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $28 $0 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $125 +$2 +1%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $25 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 94¢ $23 10m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 14m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 14m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 15m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 15m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 93¢ $5 28m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 92¢ $5 31m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 94¢ $20 32m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 94¢ $32 32m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 94¢ $1 36m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $7 36m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $25 37m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $25 43m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $25 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 94¢ $25 46m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $13 48m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $25 52m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 96¢ $5 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $2 58m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $10 58m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $13 58m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 58m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 96¢ $25 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $25 59m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $7 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 94¢ $25 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 94¢ $25 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 95¢ $25 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.63 · official $390.63 (match) · 1471 history records