Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x244e…e9bb sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+8%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$50
sports 48% +$14
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +8.0% -2.3% 37% 34% +21.9%
≤30d 39 +5.3% -4.8% 36% 33% +15.0%
≤90d 39 +5.3% -4.8% 36% 33% +15.0%
all 40 +2.6% -7.1% 35% 32% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 32% +0.1%
10% -16.0% 32% -9.5%
15% -24.1% 28% -18.2%
20% -31.6% 20% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage230d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$5 +162%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $104 +$67 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $32 +$10 +30%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2 −$1 -40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 +$24 +146%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$20 +199%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $60 +$22 +37%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $13 −$5 -38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 −$2 -69%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$51 +496%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 +$11 +423%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$4 +35%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$13 -64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$16 -54%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$35 +344%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 46m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 71¢ $70 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 15h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 17h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 80¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 39h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $82 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 39h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 59¢ $60 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.08 · official $17.08 (match) · 76 history records