Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x244e…8a20 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+0%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 50L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 58% −$13
politics 20% −$14
other 15% +$8
culture 4% −$1
sports 2% +$108
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 17% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 13% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 55 +4.9% -5.1% 27% 20% -7.9%
all 69 +3.8% -6.1% 28% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 16% -9.2%
10% -15.0% 16% -17.9%
15% -23.3% 14% -25.8%
20% -30.8% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage603d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $197 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $399 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $411 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $401 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $397 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $13 +$8 +62%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $14 +$7 +52%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $40 +$34 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 3h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 27h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 26d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $80 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.39 · official $81.39 (match) · 311 history records