Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x244e…b1c7 sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+2%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate78%65W / 18L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$136
14 days+$179
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$111
other 31% +$67
weather 2% +$1
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.2% -8.4% 87% 22% -6.9%
≤30d 83 -5.9% -14.9% 78% 28% -7.1%
≤90d 83 -5.9% -14.9% 78% 28% -7.1%
all 83 -5.9% -14.9% 78% 28% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 28% -7.1%
10% -23.0% 24% -16.0%
15% -30.5% 16% -24.1%
20% -37.3% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.94 per $1 lost it wins $5.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses65 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage19d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +26%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $600 +$1 +0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 +$2 +155%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $100 +$10 +10%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -64%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 +$17 +17%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $86 +$14 +16%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $155 +$2 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $200 +$4 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $300 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +38%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 $0 +6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $12 +$1 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $68 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $992 +$34 +3%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -68%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $300 +$3 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $115 +$5 +5%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $110 +$2 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 +$14 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $3 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $600 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $110 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $105 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $100 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $102 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 28¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 75¢ $10 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $117 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 11h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 11h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $204 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $86 28h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $155 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 28h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 36h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $2 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh $0 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $292 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $5 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $5 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 99¢ $300 39h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 2d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records