Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x244d…3d27
crypto · 264 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$190 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$189 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses129 / 134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage93d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$43
14 days−$183
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $81 −$37 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$9 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$10 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $44 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% −$23
other 32% −$143
world 20% −$21
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.6% -5.3% 46% 44% -17.5%
≤30d 109 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 44% -20.5%
≤90d 215 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 47% -19.4%
all 263 +2.1% -7.7% 49% 49% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -18.0%
10% -16.5% 49% -25.9%
15% -24.6% 49% -33.0%
20% -32.0% 48% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.54 · official $13.54 (match) · 516 history records