Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x244c…0f81
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$259 +137%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$257 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$257
14 days+$257
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +246%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$329 +642%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$342
other 46% −$85
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 21h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 43h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $381 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 20% 20% +122.1%
≤30d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 20% 20% +122.1%
≤90d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 20% 20% +122.1%
all 10 +8.8% -1.6% 20% 20% +122.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 20% +122.1%
10% -11.0% 20% +100.9%
15% -19.6% 20% +81.5%
20% -27.5% 20% +63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.38 · official $9.62 (match) · 13 history records