Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

24 0x244a…92a7 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-10.2%	-18.8%	0%	0%	-18.8%
≤30d	1	-10.2%	-18.8%	0%	0%	-18.8%
≤90d	1	-10.2%	-18.8%	0%	0%	-18.8%
all	1	-10.2%	-18.8%	0%	0%	-18.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.8%	0%	-18.8%
10%	-26.5%	0%	-26.5%
15%	-33.6%	0%	-33.6%
20%	-40.1%	0%	-40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage4d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$21	−$2	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$9	4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$19	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$9	4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.34 · official $33.64 (match) · 6 history records