Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x2448…f5b2 crypto 957 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$768 (-2%) realized −$767 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%756W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$453
other 6% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 162 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 16% -10.9%
≤90d 946 -3.6% -12.7% 79% 5% -11.2%
all 956 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 5% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 3% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 2% -27.5%
20% -35.7% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$767
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses756 / 200
Open positions1
Markets (closed)956 / 957
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 51¢ 48¢ $200 $191 −$10 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $159 $158 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$28 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$46 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$40 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $295 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $338 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $400 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $415 −$89 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $228 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $360 −$87 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$30 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $312 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$38 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $353 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $404 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $339 −$87 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $337 −$79 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $287 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $151 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $73 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $325 −$82 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $148 −$70 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$37 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $315 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $385 +$103 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $128 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $124 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $69 +$28 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $270 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $161 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $87 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $78 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $75 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $42 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $59 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $44 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.60 · official $351.18 (match) · 3500 history records