Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
24 0x2440…4eb3 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$5
crypto 9% +$1
politics 2% −$11
tech 2% +$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 -0.8% -10.2% 74% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage524d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $55 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $65 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 29 $5,190 −$5 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 18 $23 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 24 $6 $0 -0%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 20 $22 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 150d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $57 212d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 242d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 243d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 273d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $42 274d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $22 334d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $36 334d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 367d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.54 · official $56.54 (match) · 105 history records