Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x243c…9ae0 sports 633 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$577 (-3%) realized −$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%288W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$142
14 days+$150
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$516
other 3% −$12
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +42.4% +28.9% 43% 43% +20.0%
≤30d 106 +26.3% +14.3% 40% 40% +9.0%
≤90d 151 +11.7% +1.0% 38% 37% -3.3%
all 619 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 45% -12.2%
10% -18.6% 43% -20.6%
15% -26.4% 42% -28.3%
20% -33.7% 39% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$27 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses288 / 331
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 633
History coverage206d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 +$11 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 +$13 +128%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$4 -39%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 -6%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 +$8 +206%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 +$5 +109%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 A Jun 26 $6 +$50 +809%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 +$18 +44%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$4 -80%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 +$6 +180%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$19 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Switze Jun 25 $2 +$10 +504%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $26 +$11 +41%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Co Jun 24 $2 +$7 +324%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$19 +48%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$16 +786%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 +$9 +99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 47¢ $30 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 23h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 28¢ $6 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 25h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $5 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $10 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 34h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 34h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $4 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $10 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 34h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $5 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND New Zeal BUY 7¢ $6 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 A SELL 99¢ $56 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 9¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.89 · official $49.89 (match) · 1907 history records