Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x243a…ddb9 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$568 (+23%) realized +$569 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$266
14 days+$527
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$245
sports 40% +$272
crypto 2% +$36
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 57% +12.5%
≤30d 54 +8.9% -1.4% 56% 54% +10.3%
≤90d 54 +8.9% -1.4% 56% 54% +10.3%
all 54 +8.9% -1.4% 56% 54% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 54% +10.3%
10% -10.9% 54% -0.3%
15% -19.5% 50% -9.9%
20% -27.4% 37% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$32 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$569
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 53
History coverage14d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$48 +91%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$28 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $53 +$51 +97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$32 -90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$5 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$59 +117%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$47 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 +$56 +104%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $63 +$27 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$26 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -74%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$52 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $40 +$98 +246%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $54 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $4 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $26 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $53 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes $6 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes $3 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $29 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.77 · official $96.77 (match) · 99 history records