Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2439…a66d sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10,142 (-17%) realized −$9,798 · open −$344
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,355per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$609est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8,910
14 days−$8,910
30 days−$10,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,673
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.1% +6.0% 80% 60% -29.6%
≤30d 24 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 46% -27.8%
≤90d 24 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 46% -27.8%
all 24 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 46% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 46% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 25% -34.7%
15% -34.2% 25% -41.0%
20% -40.6% 8% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,612) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$526 vs −$2,024 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9,798
Unrealized−$344
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$609
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2,355
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers $185 $2 −$183 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,612 +$47 +1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $6,938 −$6,938 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7,994 −$7,994 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$86 +219%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,756 +$1,247 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4,723 +$2,035 +43%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,354 +$260 +19%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $2,970 +$27 +1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4,643 +$2,314 +50%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $2,076 +$998 +48%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $35 −$29 -84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $512 −$512 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 01 $493 −$493 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,326 −$740 -56%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner May 31 $326 +$127 +39%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A May 31 $1,662 +$191 +12%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 31 $546 −$415 -76%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $976 −$976 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $687 +$408 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $576 +$106 +18%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $542 +$27 +5%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 26 $1,327 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $6 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $15 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $11 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $15 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $16 29m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $8 29m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $3 29m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $4 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $83 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $4 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 31m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $210 32m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 32m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 32m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $4,902 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $1,004 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $1,006 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 84¢ $1,005 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ $1,007 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $11 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $477 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $15 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $199 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $592 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.91 (match) · 395 history records