Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x242f…561d sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$294 (+18%) realized +$294 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$185
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$299
sports 45% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.6% -14.6% 40% 40% +2.9%
≤30d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 48% -0.1%
≤90d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 48% -0.1%
all 21 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -0.1%
10% -18.6% 43% -9.6%
15% -26.5% 33% -18.4%
20% -33.7% 29% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$32 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $512 +$153 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$116 +110%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $152 −$55 -36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $157 −$19 -12%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$21 -64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $105 −$79 -75%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 −$8 -49%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $66 +$123 +186%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $37 −$23 -61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$23 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 +$33 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $84 −$80 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $73 +$11 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $42 +$31 +75%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $36 +$15 +40%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $19 +$17 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $665 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $415 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $97 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $152 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $139 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $105 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $157 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 4h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 5h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $26 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 8h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $8 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 26h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 29h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $189 30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $66 31h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $64 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records