Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x242e…e2cb
world · 94 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$13 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses54 / 12
Open positions28
Markets (closed)66 / 94
History coverage65d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 28 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 82¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 39¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 87¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 42¢ 31¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 82¢ 65¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 44¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 40¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 42¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 70¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +17%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $2 $0 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $2 $0 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 16 $2 $0 +17%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 16 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 15 $1 $0 +49%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $3 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $14 +$3 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $3 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $1 $0 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% +$6
politics 17% +$6
other 14% −$1
finance 8% +$2
tech 4% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $1 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 79¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 84¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 92¢ $1 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $1 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $1 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $2 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $2 11d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 67¢ $1 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 86¢ $1 12d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 14d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 36¢ $1 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 30¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.5% -2.8% 80% 40% +0.1%
≤30d 41 +16.7% +5.6% 85% 59% +3.8%
≤90d 66 +7.5% -2.7% 82% 55% +1.8%
all 66 +7.5% -2.7% 82% 55% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 55% +1.8%
10% -12.0% 33% -7.9%
15% -20.5% 23% -16.8%
20% -28.3% 11% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.05 · official $47.05 (match) · 177 history records