Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x242b…d133 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$18
politics 23% −$17
sports 19% −$10
crypto 9% −$7
world 5% $0
finance 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 127 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage100d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $429 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $112 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 07 $53 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $689 −$2 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $86 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $243 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $56 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $253 −$2 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 28 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $250 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $51 42m
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $55 1h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 11h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $5 12h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 29h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 29h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 34h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 35h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $40 43h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $22 47h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $19 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.60 · official $50.60 (match) · 465 history records