Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2429…7b51 crypto 720 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,513 (-39%) realized −$6,513 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%401W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day72.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$352
14 days+$101
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$6,358
crypto 35% +$121
weather 23% −$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 40% -20.2%
≤30d 718 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 47% -13.5%
≤90d 720 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 47% -46.7%
all 720 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 47% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 47% -46.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 30% -51.8%
15% -27.8% 22% -56.5%
20% -34.9% 13% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,513
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses401 / 319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)720 / 720
History coverage38d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 720 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3236 history records