Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x2429…02d9 weather 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$407 (+3%) realized +$359 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%87W / 157L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$273
14 days+$383
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$22
politics 32% −$14
weather 17% +$430
world 6% −$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +11.7% +1.1% 50% 50% +9.7%
≤30d 227 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 37% -6.7%
≤90d 241 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 35% -7.1%
all 244 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 35% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 35% -7.1%
10% -16.7% 35% -16.0%
15% -24.7% 35% -24.1%
20% -32.1% 35% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses87 / 157
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)244 / 258
History coverage237d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 49¢ 100¢ $30 $62 +$32 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 49¢ 100¢ $23 $48 +$24 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 40¢ 36¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 48¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? No 46¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 35¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? No 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? No 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$7 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 17 $27 +$33 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$34 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $2 +$3 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +178%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 +$3 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$13 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $35 +$36 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$14 +151%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$14 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$29 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $47 +$50 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$69 +136%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $24 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 35¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 34¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 31¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 48¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 41¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 41¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 45¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 43¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 36¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 49¢ $17 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 48¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 38¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.67 · official $171.55 (match) · 781 history records