Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
24 0x2429…b0fb sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$140 (+101%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$129
other 40% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+78.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +97.2% +78.4% 64% 64% +81.1%
≤30d 14 +97.2% +78.4% 64% 64% +81.1%
≤90d 14 +97.2% +78.4% 64% 64% +81.1%
all 14 +97.2% +78.4% 64% 64% +81.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.4% 64% +81.1%
10% +61.3% 64% +63.8%
15% +45.7% 64% +48.0%
20% +31.4% 64% +33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +192% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +66%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$25 +246%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$20 +177%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records