Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2429…4ecb crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+12%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%102W / 57L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day101.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +8.5% -1.8% 64% 52% -5.8%
≤30d 159 +8.5% -1.8% 64% 52% -5.8%
≤90d 159 +8.5% -1.8% 64% 52% -5.8%
all 159 +8.5% -1.8% 64% 52% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 52% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -14.8%
15% -19.8% 32% -23.0%
20% -27.7% 23% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses102 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day101.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $93 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 525 history records