Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2425…3dd1 world 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,438 (+7%) realized +$1,717 · open +$721
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%63W / 148L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$176
14 days+$191
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$3,718
sports 14% +$57
other 7% −$638
finance 5% −$532
tech 3% −$281
politics 1% +$24
economics 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 27% -1.4%
≤30d 42 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 26% -6.9%
≤90d 79 -20.9% -28.4% 25% 22% -24.9%
all 211 -8.8% -17.5% 30% 24% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 24% -5.3%
10% -25.4% 20% -14.3%
15% -32.6% 18% -22.6%
20% -39.2% 17% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$69 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$2,150
Realized+$1,717
Unrealized+$721
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses63 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)211 / 222
History coverage363d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 43¢ 95¢ $267 $586 +$319 (+120%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes 14¢ 29¢ $200 $414 +$214 (+107%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $203 $362 +$159 (+78%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $100 $190 +$90 (+90%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 52¢ 81¢ $100 $156 +$56 (+56%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $170 $144 −$26 (-15%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 59¢ 66¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes $128 $42 −$86 (-67%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $40 +$30 +75%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $56 +$191 +340%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $198 +$328 +165%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$12 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 14 $100 +$11 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $203 +$4 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $120 −$12 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $125 −$123 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $620 −$205 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $140 +$153 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 08 $206 −$200 -97%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $250 −$133 -53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $265 −$212 -80%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 08 $104 −$100 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $118 +$482 +408%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $100 +$235 +235%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $240 −$46 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $400 −$100 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $624 −$8 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $104 +$96 +92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $203 +$142 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 01 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 29 $103 −$41 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? May 29 $169 −$60 -36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $232 −$225 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 28 $129 −$125 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $200 +$624 +312%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $110 −$52 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $560 +$26 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $170 −$129 -76%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $91 −$81 -90%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $150 −$75 -50%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $31 −$30 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 15 $220 −$159 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 10 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 09 $50 +$100 +199%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $200 +$164 +82%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $125 −$33 -26%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 +$103 +103%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $60 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $170 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $40 8h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 25¢ $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $180 8h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 12h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $10 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $46 12h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $207 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $120 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $303 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $60 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $212 34h
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $70 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $198 40h
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $88 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $111 40h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY Yes $17 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $207 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $108 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,150.12 · official $2,150.17 (match) · 1150 history records