Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2425…8442 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$517 (+13%) realized +$790 · open −$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,027per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$557
world 49% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
≤30d 2 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.3%
≤90d 2 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.3%
all 3 -16.5% -24.5% 67% 67% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 67% +8.2%
10% -31.7% 33% -2.2%
15% -38.3% 33% -11.6%
20% -44.3% 0% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$200 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.65 per $1 lost it wins $4.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$790
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,027
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $378 $105 −$273 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,630 +$173 +11%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 06 $1,900 +$757 +40%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $45 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $60 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $60 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $268 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $70 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,743 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $260 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $260 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $260 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $260 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $260 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $260 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,907 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $66 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 10d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 11d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 11d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 11d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $214 14d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 25¢ $68 14d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 59¢ $78 18d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 59¢ $194 18d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 19¢ $597 25d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 19¢ $214 25d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.00 · official $105.00 (match) · 87 history records