Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2423…79e3 crypto 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-4%) realized −$220 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%96W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$33
14 days+$19
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$144
other 8% −$51
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +10.7% +0.2% 60% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 56 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 48% -10.7%
≤90d 180 -8.1% -16.9% 53% 43% -14.2%
all 180 -8.1% -16.9% 53% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 43% -14.2%
10% -24.8% 35% -22.4%
15% -32.1% 23% -29.9%
20% -38.7% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses96 / 84
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)180 / 196
History coverage70d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 30¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2137%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1603%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+85%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal v Jun 23 $15 +$18 +120%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +36%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Wil Jun 23 $10 +$41 +399%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +510%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +76%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$13 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$11 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $42 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 48¢ $20 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 30¢ $20 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal v BUY 45¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 15h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Wil SELL 99¢ $51 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 24h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Wil BUY 19¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.91 · official $113.91 · 488 history records