Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
24 0x2420…ce7f politics 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 648d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$397 (+2%) realized +$304 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%162W / 80L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$71
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$86
other 28% +$161
culture 7% +$343
world 6% −$109
sports 3% +$151
finance 3% −$270
tech 2% +$182
crypto 1% −$11
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.3% -27.0% 0% 0% -28.0%
≤30d 6 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 33% -29.6%
≤90d 6 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 33% -29.6%
all 242 +10.8% +0.2% 67% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 47% -8.2%
10% -9.4% 32% -17.0%
15% -18.1% 22% -25.0%
20% -26.2% 17% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$53 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

648d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses162 / 80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage648d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $130 $145 +$15 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $97 −$21 -22%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $141 −$45 -32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$10 +36%
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 09 $421 −$250 -60%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 24 $50 +$18 +35%
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top US Netflix mov Feb 18 $164 +$115 +70%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 12 $110 +$34 +31%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $558 +$408 +73%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 10 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 10 $191 −$37 -19%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $81 +$79 +98%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $71 −$18 -25%
Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 06 $29 +$4 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Feb 06 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $84 −$8 -10%
Will Brazil record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 05 $131 −$77 -59%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 05 $131 +$77 +59%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 05 $42 −$1 -2%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $122 −$122 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 04 $25 −$1 -2%
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? Feb 04 $26 −$14 -54%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 04 $224 +$81 +36%
Eric Adams arrested by March 31? Feb 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Jan 31 $16 +$4 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30? Jan 31 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on January 31? Jan 29 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Jan 29 $52 −$37 -71%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I Jan 28 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Trump say "Biden" 15+ times during Iowa speech? Jan 28 $22 +$28 +122%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jan 28 $57 −$31 -54%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? Jan 25 $18 +$4 +20%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 25 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 Jan 25 $17 +$3 +14%
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the top global Netflix show this week? (Janu Jan 25 $47 −$6 -13%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $152 +$57 +38%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jan 23 $91 −$10 -11%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Jan 23 $29 +$6 +21%
Will "The Secret Agent" be nominated for Best International Feature Fi Jan 22 $50 +$9 +17%
Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the top US Netflix movie this wee Jan 22 $18 +$37 +201%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 21 $62 −$11 -17%
Will Trump shake hands with Keir Starmer at the World Economic Forum? Jan 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 48¢ $76 58m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $67 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $103 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $67 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $67 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 9d
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? SELL No 86¢ $27 9d
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? BUY No 77¢ $25 70d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 107d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 107d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 5¢ $14 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 5¢ $94 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 7¢ $28 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 7¢ $28 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $3 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $4 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $1 107d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 107d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 6¢ $6 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $4 107d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $55 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 12¢ $1 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 12¢ $5 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 12¢ $107 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 15¢ $145 107d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 15¢ $2 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.84 · official $322.84 (match) · 1620 history records