Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x2420…46fa crypto 639 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-4%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%409W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$25
14 days−$205
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$159
other 5% +$21
sports 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -3.8% -13.0% 66% 66% -5.4%
≤30d 632 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 61% -14.4%
≤90d 638 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 61% -14.4%
all 638 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 61% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 61% -14.4%
10% -21.2% 49% -22.6%
15% -28.8% 39% -30.1%
20% -35.8% 25% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses409 / 229
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)638 / 639
History coverage55d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 +$38 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $28 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.80 · official $26.80 (match) · 1146 history records