Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x241f…e15a world 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,093 (+1%) realized +$2,924 · open +$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate70%124W / 52L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$2,777per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$11,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$859
14 days−$99
30 days+$1,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1,292
economics 16% +$289
other 7% −$491
finance 6% +$505
tech 5% +$1,636
crypto 1% +$45
weather 1% +$75
sports 0% +$6
culture 0% +$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 0% -34.7%
≤30d 21 +3.0% -6.8% 81% 19% -8.2%
≤90d 106 +1.9% -7.8% 80% 16% -8.5%
all 176 +5.9% -4.2% 70% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 13% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -17.7%
15% -21.8% 2% -25.6%
20% -29.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,936) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$84 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$11,592
Realized+$2,924
Unrealized+$169
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses124 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)176 / 185
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$2,777
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $4,617 $5,148 +$531 (+11%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $2,326 $2,530 +$204 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $1,016 $1,068 +$52 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $800 $850 +$50 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $757 $779 +$22 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 38¢ $1,253 $606 −$648 (-52%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $249 $256 +$8 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $231 $244 +$13 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 5¢ 3¢ $26 $14 −$12 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $1,751 −$928 -53%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,332 +$69 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,377 +$80 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $711 +$33 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $411 +$76 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $23,298 +$571 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Jun 09 $136 +$5 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13,779 +$320 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 5? Jun 05 $486 +$13 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? Jun 02 $435 +$26 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 02 $400 +$99 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $36,050 +$338 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3,958 +$42 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $8,064 +$282 +4%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 30 $868 +$121 +14%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 30 $920 +$139 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $326 +$8 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6,465 +$188 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $1,227 +$96 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $18,494 +$138 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $774 +$16 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 15? May 16 $443 +$132 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 15? May 16 $103 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $1,625 +$155 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 15? May 16 $53 +$2 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 15? May 16 $351 +$46 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15? May 16 $186 +$22 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $196 +$4 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 15? May 15 $493 +$7 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $34,243 +$85 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15? May 15 $42 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15? May 15 $152 +$8 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 15? May 15 $41 +$13 +32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 14? May 14 $89 +$12 +13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 13 $11,534 −$65 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 12? May 12 $477 −$113 -24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 12? May 12 $1,004 +$27 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 12? May 12 $520 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $5,747 +$202 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 11? May 11 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $331 −$176 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $3,464 +$136 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $5,583 −$108 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $586 +$6 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 08 $529 +$21 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 05 $20,094 +$117 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $2,953 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $737 1h
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $516 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 5¢ $26 15h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $8 40h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 4¢ $13 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 4¢ $36 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $302 2d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $216 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $291 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $65 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $1 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 39¢ $116 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $123 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $56 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 100¢ $199 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 95¢ $664 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 91¢ $638 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 93¢ $14 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 92¢ $38 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 94¢ $153 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 94¢ $488 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $472 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $468 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $937 5d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 5d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $250 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 4¢ $2 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 4¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,591.88 · official $11,589.82 (match) · 3500 history records