Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x241e…3239
crypto · 32 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$64 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$35
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage69d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 18¢ $150 $185 +$35 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$48 +907%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $400 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $304 +$75 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $179 +$78 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$36 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $163 +$117 +72%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 06 $4 +$6 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$182
sports 17% +$39
world 12% +$35
other 6% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $62 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $160 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $361 7h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $170 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $170 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 63¢ $75 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 39¢ $74 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 70¢ $5 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 81¢ $50 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 81¢ $101 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $300 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $379 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $96 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.1% +11.4% 61% 39% -10.8%
≤30d 28 +23.1% +11.4% 61% 39% -10.8%
≤90d 29 +27.4% +15.3% 62% 41% -10.5%
all 29 +27.4% +15.3% 62% 41% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 41% -10.5%
10% +4.2% 38% -19.1%
15% -5.8% 31% -26.9%
20% -15.1% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.00 · official $185.00 (match) · 98 history records