Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

24 0x241d…461e other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$21 (+14%) realized +$27 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%9W / 8L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$25

7 days+$28

14 days+$25

30 days+$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+38.9%	+25.6%	67%	67%	+34.3%
≤30d	17	+16.2%	+5.1%	53%	53%	+11.4%
≤90d	17	+16.2%	+5.1%	53%	53%	+11.4%
all	17	+16.2%	+5.1%	53%	53%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.1%	53%	+11.4%
10%	-5.0%	53%	+0.8%
15%	-14.1%	47%	-9.0%
20%	-22.6%	29%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses9 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage11d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-39%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	38¢	6¢	$4	$1	−$3 (-83%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	+$17	+325%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	+$7	+129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+31%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$14	+276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$4	+$2	+44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$36	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$5	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY Yes	38¢	$4	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$5	8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4	11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.47 · official $39.47 (match) · 31 history records