Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x241d…cefe world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$6
other 9% +$3
sports 3% −$2
economics 1% −$2
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +0.4% -9.1% 18% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 22 +0.4% -9.1% 18% 5% -8.7%
all 34 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -8.8%
10% -21.0% 6% -17.6%
15% -28.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.6% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage490d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 +$8 +30%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 27 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? Mar 04 $6 +$3 +56%
Iowa vs. Illinois Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Feb 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26? Feb 25 $8 $0 +4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 25 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $49 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $44 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $8 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $11 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $26 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $45 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $19 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records