Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x241c…0234 crypto 635 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$522 (-11%) realized −$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%162W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$56
14 days−$93
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$780
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -11.5% -20.0% 19% 13% -19.3%
≤30d 283 -9.9% -18.5% 26% 19% -17.5%
≤90d 635 -12.1% -20.5% 26% 20% -24.2%
all 635 -12.1% -20.5% 26% 20% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 20% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 17% -31.5%
15% -35.1% 14% -38.1%
20% -41.4% 10% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses162 / 473
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage46d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1527 history records