Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2414…70ee sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-30%) realized −$144 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 164d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$140
other 24% +$8
world 24% −$33
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.6% -58.9% 17% 17% -51.5%
≤30d 6 -54.6% -58.9% 17% 17% -51.5%
≤90d 6 -54.6% -58.9% 17% 17% -51.5%
all 8 -44.4% -49.7% 12% 12% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 12% -40.8%
10% -54.5% 12% -46.5%
15% -58.9% 12% -51.6%
20% -62.9% 12% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage164d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 54¢ $71 $58 −$13 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$27 +60%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $50 −$32 -63%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $80 −$19 -24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 08 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $100 −$25 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $72 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $45 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 25h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 25h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 19d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 42d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 7¢ $5 42d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $35 42d
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $73 163d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $73 163d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $75 163d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 21¢ $75 163d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 28¢ $100 164d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 164d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.21 · official $58.21 (match) · 19 history records