Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2414…86e0 crypto 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate82%373W / 84L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +1.2% -8.4% 80% 69% -10.4%
≤30d 457 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 65% -8.5%
≤90d 457 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 65% -8.5%
all 457 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 65% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 65% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 29% -17.3%
15% -23.5% 8% -25.3%
20% -31.0% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses373 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 457
History coverage21d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 904 history records