Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2413…4216 sports 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$423 (-1%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +138% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip
Net edge+84%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%176W / 157L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$674est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days−$379
14 days−$515
30 days−$1,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,502
world 0% −$95
other 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+115.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +200.6% +172.0% 51% 47% -16.9%
≤30d 279 +136.2% +113.7% 51% 47% -16.5%
≤90d 333 +138.5% +115.8% 53% 46% -14.8%
all 333 +138.5% +115.8% 53% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +115.8% 46% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here +95.1% 36% -23.0%
15% +76.3% 24% -30.4%
20% +59.0% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +139% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +166% → late +111% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$52 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses176 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$674
Open positions0
Markets (closed)333 / 333
History coverage43d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 333 Trades
no open positions (173 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $202 +$100 +49%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $155 −$60 -38%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $65 +$50 +78%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $107 −$105 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$47 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $138 +$46 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $170 +$65 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $106 +$42 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $37 −$24 -64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $142 −$140 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $73 +$28 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $265 −$95 -36%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $351 −$136 -39%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $125 +$53 +42%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $176 −$174 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $292 +$110 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $368 +$34 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $23 +$2 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $111 −$5 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$104 -53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $246 −$51 -21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $575 +$137 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $345 +$27 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $50 −$46 -93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $16 −$14 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $55 −$48 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $77 −$70 -92%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$29 -21%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $209 −$205 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $130 −$110 -84%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $54 +$24 +46%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $73 +$27 +38%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $69 −$68 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $281 +$85 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $891 +$82 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $682 +$8 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $862 −$58 -7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $140 +$46 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $92 +$33 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $760 +$70 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $89 +$48 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $115 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $32 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $32 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 64¢ $3 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ $91 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $23 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $40 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $20 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $31 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $36 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $28 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $33 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $33 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $12 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 9¢ $2 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $10 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $9 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $12 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $6 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 31¢ $15 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $20 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $26 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $1 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $12 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $18 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 2628 history records