Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x240d…1ff2 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,302 (-11%) realized −$2,302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%41W / 67L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days+$150
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,519
crypto 20% −$197
other 14% +$304
politics 5% +$154
world 4% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 30 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 55 -36.5% -42.5% 31% 31% -38.3%
all 108 -25.0% -32.1% 38% 34% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 34% -19.3%
10% -38.6% 29% -27.0%
15% -44.6% 23% -34.1%
20% -50.0% 18% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$89 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage595d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $316 +$68 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 21 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$38 -37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$61 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 −$57 -56%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$67 +65%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$89 -87%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$71 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$65 +65%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $207 −$204 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$118 +117%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$65 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$65 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$150 +150%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$22 -22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$75 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$47 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $50 −$13 -27%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 09 $51 +$63 +124%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Mar 29 $170 −$170 -100%
ODI Series New Zealand vs South Africa Women: New Zealand vs South Afr Mar 29 $796 −$796 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $711 +$85 +12%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Mar 28 $765 −$743 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 1? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 10? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 1? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $167 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $89 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 26¢ $18 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 28¢ $26 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 8h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 43¢ $92 8h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $170 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 46h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 75¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records