Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x240d…bfd2 other 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,148 (-4%) realized −$2,197 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate43%124W / 162L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$76
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,154
sports 12% +$397
politics 10% −$43
world 6% −$948
crypto 6% −$61
economics 1% −$139
tech 1% −$197
culture 0% +$12
finance 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.6% -38.1% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 25% 8% -10.7%
≤90d 75 -49.4% -54.2% 15% 4% -26.5%
all 286 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 24% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 24% -12.9%
10% -31.6% 17% -21.2%
15% -38.2% 13% -28.8%
20% -44.3% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized−$2,197
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses124 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions7
Markets (closed)286 / 293
History coverage478d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $75 −$48 -63%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,037 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $188 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $928 +$8 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,329 −$31 -2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $244 −$8 -3%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $175 −$2 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $22 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $469 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1,104 −$139 -13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $30 −$25 -84%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $287 +$61 +21%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? May 21 $226 −$166 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Apr 08 $322 −$34 -10%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5? Apr 08 $9 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Apr 08 $23 −$16 -69%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Apr 08 $296 −$145 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Apr 08 $1,741 −$230 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $33 −$14 -42%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Apr 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Apr 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Apr 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 08 $28 −$28 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Apr 08 $146 −$47 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Apr 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $38 −$38 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Apr 08 $385 −$91 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Apr 08 $606 −$60 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $375 −$65 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $85 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 15h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.50 · official $819.50 (match) · 1670 history records