Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2409…215e crypto 1586 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,152 (-5%) realized −$1,206 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%954W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$363
14 days+$363
30 days+$1,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,039
crypto 23% −$332
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 60% +15.0%
≤30d 105 +15.7% +4.7% 61% 58% +1.3%
≤90d 1584 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 55% -7.1%
all 1584 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 55% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 49% -16.0%
15% -29.3% 33% -24.1%
20% -36.2% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$1,206
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses954 / 630
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1584 / 1586
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs Carstensz 69¢ 94¢ $150 $204 +$54 (+36%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 71¢ 71¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 28 $199 −$118 -59%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse Jun 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $152 +$146 +96%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Sahaja Yamalapalli Jun 27 $152 +$97 +64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel Jun 27 $101 −$7 -7%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $200 +$78 +39%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi Jun 26 $301 +$251 +83%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $203 −$107 -53%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $181 −$181 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 11 $242 +$141 +58%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $47 −$5 -10%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $101 +$68 +67%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $102 −$57 -56%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $236 +$305 +129%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $51 −$33 -65%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $59 +$62 +105%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $202 +$120 +59%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $101 +$44 +44%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $96 +$86 +90%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $303 +$130 +43%
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $82 −$56 -68%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $102 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $102 +$116 +114%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $101 +$60 +59%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $51 +$29 +57%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $102 +$131 +128%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $101 +$65 +64%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Yufei Ren Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Sumter: Reese Brantmeier vs Cadence Brace Jun 06 $51 +$30 +59%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $51 +$34 +67%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $101 +$36 +36%
ITF Sumter: Whitney Osuigwe vs Kristina Liutova Jun 06 $101 +$52 +52%
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 06 $51 +$39 +76%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $101 +$63 +62%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $102 +$161 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $101 +$20 +20%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 70¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 69¢ $101 1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho SELL Sakura Hosogi 20¢ $81 1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho BUY Sakura Hosogi 32¢ $47 1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho BUY Sakura Hosogi 37¢ $51 1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho BUY Sakura Hosogi 72¢ $101 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse BUY Eva Vedder 63¢ $51 11h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $298 13h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Sahaja Yamalapalli SELL Amelia Honer 100¢ $249 13h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Sahaja Yamalapalli BUY Amelia Honer 54¢ $51 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $101 15h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 47¢ $51 15h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 52¢ $101 15h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Sahaja Yamalapalli BUY Amelia Honer 64¢ $101 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $51 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 13¢ $41 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 28¢ $41 16h
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel SELL Gina Feistel 67¢ $94 19h
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel BUY Gina Feistel 71¢ $101 20h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi SELL Eva Vedder 100¢ $552 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $70 32h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi BUY Eva Vedder 46¢ $102 33h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi BUY Eva Vedder 59¢ $200 34h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva BUY Ayla Aksu 74¢ $101 34h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva BUY Ayla Aksu 69¢ $99 34h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 71¢ $50 34h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 60¢ $80 16d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $101 16d
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Yeon Woo Ku BUY Yeon Woo Ku 75¢ $202 16d
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth SELL Dalila Jakupovic 100¢ $383 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.99 · official $300.75 · 3500 history records