Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2407…7dca crypto 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$906 (+3%) realized +$798 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%148W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,071
7 days−$2,688
14 days−$2,688
30 days−$2,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$1,561
crypto 22% −$219
other 19% −$397
world 13% +$98
politics 7% −$432
tech 1% −$77
culture 0% −$124
finance 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -37.4% -43.4% 20% 20% -24.0%
≤30d 204 -31.3% -37.8% 25% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 205 -31.2% -37.8% 25% 25% -21.7%
all 350 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 40% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 40% -7.5%
10% -16.3% 38% -16.4%
15% -24.4% 33% -24.5%
20% -31.8% 28% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$41 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,637
Realized+$798
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses148 / 202
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions15
Markets (closed)350 / 366
History coverage162d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $330 $444 +$114 (+34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $243 +$43 (+22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $130 $102 −$28 (-21%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $750 −$247 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $435 +$216 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $110 +$189 +172%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $99 +$55 +56%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$6 -20%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -11%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 16 $303 −$101 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $505 +$234 +46%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$32 -31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 −$304 -60%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$35 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$8 -39%
Dota 2: Execration vs Team Nemesis (BO5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$20 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$61 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$29 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $197 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $197 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $148 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $146 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $203 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $233 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 13h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $110 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 18h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 34¢ $202 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $99 23h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 18¢ $70 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $161 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $738 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $187 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.03 · official $1,637.03 (match) · 1071 history records