Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2407…f42e crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$69 (+3%) realized +$70 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day132.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$228
other 16% +$55
sports 4% +$57
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -15.1% -23.2% 39% 38% -14.2%
≤30d 84 -15.1% -23.2% 39% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 84 -15.1% -23.2% 39% 38% -14.2%
all 84 -15.1% -23.2% 39% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 38% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 36% -22.4%
15% -37.3% 33% -29.9%
20% -43.4% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day132.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $89 +$124 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $84 +$66 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$26 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$43 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$52 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$102 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $85 9h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.29 · official $99.26 (match) · 271 history records