Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2405…427b sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+6%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$16
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$14
sports 46% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 56% -4.9%
≤30d 53 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 53 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 47% -9.2%
all 53 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 47% -9.2%
10% -32.9% 34% -17.9%
15% -39.4% 26% -25.8%
20% -45.3% 21% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $75 +$4 +5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 +$7 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$6 -81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +206%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 2h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $30 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 24h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $2 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 75¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $5 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $1 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records