Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2405…0200 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$2
politics 21% −$3
sports 10% −$70
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 +6.6% -3.6% 27% 9% -8.9%
≤90d 96 -8.1% -16.9% 10% 5% -10.0%
all 96 -8.1% -16.9% 10% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 5% -10.0%
10% -24.8% 5% -18.6%
15% -32.1% 4% -26.5%
20% -38.8% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage89d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $521 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $11 +$8 +73%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $298 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $323 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $494 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $280 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $460 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $11 +$10 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 27d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $31 28d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $31 28d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $11 29d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $22 29d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $154 33d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $151 34d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $151 35d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $145 41d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $145 41d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $156 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.66 · official $124.66 (match) · 260 history records