Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2400…4afb weather 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate47%111W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$25
other 26% +$4
crypto 11% +$5
politics 10% −$6
sports 8% −$1
tech 8% +$2
culture 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 59 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 179 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 0% -10.9%
all 236 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses111 / 125
Open positions3
Markets (closed)236 / 239
History coverage554d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 Jun 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the match not air? Jun 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 26? Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 3? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 3? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $24 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $11 13h
Will the match not air? SELL No 100¢ $17 13h
Will the match not air? SELL No 100¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $6 21h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 27h
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $17 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 35h
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $21 37h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $16 40h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.46 · official $42.46 (match) · 539 history records