Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x23fe…2bd0 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$441 (+49%) realized +$436 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip
Net edge+93%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$256
14 days+$479
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$311
other 2% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+93.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +679.6% +605.4% 100% 100% +113.9%
≤30d 14 +113.6% +93.3% 57% 57% +83.4%
≤90d 14 +113.6% +93.3% 57% 57% +83.4%
all 14 +113.6% +93.3% 57% 57% +83.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +93.3% 57% +83.4%
10% +74.8% 57% +65.9%
15% +57.9% 57% +49.8%
20% +42.4% 50% +35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +245% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$12 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.18 per $1 lost it wins $7.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$436
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage14d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 86¢ 86¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$133 +1290%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $177 +$123 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $88 +$112 +127%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $41 +$99 +245%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$9 +186%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $402 1h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 16h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $177 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $88 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 4¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $41 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $11 10d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $5 12d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 14d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 40¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 14d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 65¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.69 · official $464.69 (match) · 27 history records