Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x23fb…bc76 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+36%) realized +$229 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$57
sports 30% +$131
crypto 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 43% +32.9%
≤30d 44 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 43% +32.9%
≤90d 44 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 43% +32.9%
all 44 +26.5% +14.5% 50% 43% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.5% 43% +32.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.5% 41% +20.2%
15% -6.5% 39% +8.6%
20% -15.7% 32% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $41 $1 −$40 (-98%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$12 +598%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 +$112 +234%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$13 +413%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +419%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +159%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$29 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 29m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 29m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 30m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $15 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $141 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 108 history records